Our GeoMacro strategists argue that prevailing market narratives around the Gulf conflict rest on three flawed assumptions.

European sentiment plunged in March, reflecting vulnerability to higher energy prices. The ZEW expectations index fell sharply to -8.5 from 39.4 at the Euro Area level and to -0.5 from 58.3 in Germany ...

Investors are a fickle bunch. Suddenly, the selloff in tech stocks seems a distant memory and all eyes are focused on the oil shock. Yet to treat yesterday’s concerns about tech stocks and today’s ...

The Fed held rates steady today but sharply revised up its interest rate expectations for 2026, in line with the move that had already occurred in the market (Chart 1). The bulk of the committee has ...

Over the course of the past two weeks, the denizens of BCA’s GeoMacro Strategy have produced a lot of content, almost all of it tactical.1 Investors are trying to navigate a fast-paced event with a ...

Overnight, the Israeli military reported that it managed to kill two high-profile Iranian leaders: the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and the leader of the internal paramilitary ...

The conflict in the Middle East persists as the US and Israel continue their strikes, and so does Iran’s retaliation with drones and ballistic missiles against the Gulf States. The Strait of Hormuz is ...

War momentum and escalating rhetoric around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent above $100 and raised the risk of a broader supply shock. While parallels with 2022 offer a roadmap, today’s shock is ...

Middle East tensions sparked a surge in volatility, yet the S&P 500 decline has been comparatively modest. Across asset classes, moves seem related to risk preferences and near-term inflation concerns ...

Momentum behind nuclear energy is accelerating, yet financing remains the critical constraint. In this Special Report, we examine how evolving taxonomies and green bond frameworks are reshaping access ...

The spike in oil and gas prices has raised the odds of a global economic downturn. Combined with a more negative signal from our MacroQuant model, this warrants tactically downgrading stocks from ...

The Labor Market Is Still BecalmedTwo months into the new year, the labor market appears to be stuck in the same rut it slipped into in 2025. Job creation remains feeble and there is no sign yet that ...